Intelligence Analysis
A Target-Centric Approach

Eighth Edition

Robert M. Clark

December 2025 | 528 pages | CQ Press

Now in its Eighth Edition, Robert M. Clark's classic Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. In addition to looking at the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers, the author also examines key advances and emerging fields like activity-based intelligence and artificial intelligence-enabled analysis. Through features like end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with an insider perspective to serve as an ideal and insightful resource for students at all levels as well as practitioners.

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Preface

Acknowledgments

Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product

Chapter 1: Introduction

Why Intelligence Fails

What this Book Is About

Summary

Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder

Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict

Tools of Conflict

Synergy of the Tools

The Function of Intelligence

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process

The Traditional Intelligence Cycle

Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process

The Target

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 4: The Customer

Overview of Customers

Understanding the Customer

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 5: The Analyst

Critical and Logical Thinking

Objectivity

Broad Perspective

Good Instincts

The All-Source Analyst’s Role

The Analysis Team

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 6: The Analytic Network

The US National Intelligence Network

Homeland Security and Law Enforcement

Military

Nongovernmental Entities

Network Collaboration and Sharing

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product

Intelligence Research

Current Intelligence

Indications and Warning

What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?

Constraints on the Intelligence Product

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Part II: The Analysis Process

Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue

Preliminary Questions

Issue Definition

Issue Decomposition

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 9: Target Models

Modeling the Intelligence Target

General Target Models

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 10: The Target Framework

Creating a Target Framework

Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology

Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan

Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat

Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence

Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence

Acquiring Raw Intelligence

Evaluating Evidence

Combining the Evidence

Structured Argumentation

A Note about the Role of Information Technology

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 12: The Information Sources

Filling Gaps

Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework

Identifying Gaps

Developing the Collection Strategy

Executing Collection Strategies

Analyst-Collector Interaction

Evaluating Collection

Collection Requirements

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling

Denial

Deception

Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods

Countering Denial and Deception

Signaling

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 14: Getting the Message Across

Structuring the Message

Presenting the Message

Reviewing the Analytic Product

Customer Interaction

Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In

Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence

Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces

Background Forces

Synergy

Causal Models

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology

Convergent and Divergent Phenomena

The Estimative Approach

Unintended Consequences

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 17: Scenarios

Why Use Scenarios?

Types of Scenarios

Scenario Perspectives

How to Construct Scenarios

Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis

Systems Analysis Methodology

Performance

Process

Risk

Cost

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis

Link Models

Network Models

Network Analysis

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis

Static Geospatial Models

Dynamic Geospatial Models

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling

Types of Simulations

Using Simulations

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence

The Process

Scenarios

Operations Research

Simulations

Prescriptive Analytics

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach

Introduction

A Possible Future Scenario

Conclusion: Can This Work?

Summary

Critical Thinking Questions

Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs

The Yugoslavia NIE

The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE

Capstone Critical Thinking Questions

List of Commonly Used Acronyms

Index

About the Author

Key features

NEW TO THIS EDITION:

A new chapter on artificial intelligence-enabled analysis
Updated examples and case studies throughout look at contemporary issues in intelligence analysis
Revised content applicable to both introductory and advanced intelligence studies courses

KEY FEATURES:

Over 70 tables and figures help illustrate various techniques and models.
“Analysis Principles” boxes summarize touchstones of intelligence analysis.
Critical thinking questions at the end of each chapter help students develop this crucial skill.
Contrasting NIE case studies are examined at the end of the book.

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A Target-Centric Approach

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